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アラジン・ランプ

Author:アラジン・ランプ
99年8月から先物を始めて今年で ・・・年目です。マイナス8桁に沈んだ事もありましたが、通算でプラス8桁をキープしております。
 
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futuresfarm
 
このブログは単なる備忘録です。私の独断と偏見で編集しました。内容もあまり正確ではないと思います。疑いの目で批判的に見ていただくことを希望します。
 
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アラジン・ランプの石油先物トレード大作戦
☆☆☆この世界はハイリスクであることを忘れてはなりません。そして自己責任の原則です。あまり欲は出さず、儲かった時も謙虚にやれば、長く相場を張る事が出来ます。
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ガソリン灯油はもはや季節商品ではありません
あゆき
 
なぜなら東工取のプレーヤーは今や殆ど外国人で、単にNYMEXの延長に過ぎず、石油製品についても単なる金融商品として、投機の対象として、無茶苦茶をやっているだけで、日本の実勢を反映したものではありません。期近についても、今や日本の実需主体の取引ではないので、決して冬場は灯油が高くガソリンが安くとはいかないでしょう。
 
日本ではケロシンを灯油として暖房用にも使うが、外国では主としてジェット燃料なので、外国人はなぜ冬場にケロシンが高くなるのか理解できない。それで灯油が高くなったりすると格好の売り場だと思われ、売りたたかれてしまう。
 
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今年の理論上の原油価格は95ドル
やすな
 
これが本当なら 、7月に上に50ドル ブレたのだから、
今度は下に50ドル ブレてもおかしくない ・・・
 
Oil May Fall as Economic Slowdown Cuts Fuel Use, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week on concern that fuel consumption will drop as the credit crisis slows global economic growth.

Thirteen of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 43 percent, said prices will decrease through Oct. 17. Nine respondents, or 30 percent, said oil will rise and eight said prices will be little changed. Last week 55 percent expected futures to decline.

``The economic outlook is the primary mover of the market at the moment,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003 yesterday as higher borrowing costs and slower consumer spending spurred concern that there will be new victims to the credit crisis. The U.S., which consumes 24 percent of the world's oil, is now in a recession, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Crude oil for November delivery fell $7.29, or 7.8 percent, to $86.59 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $84.19, the lowest intraday price since Oct. 15, 2007. Prices, which are up 7.9 percent from a year ago, have dropped 41 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.



Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
9****** 8****** 13
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 10, 2008 00:00 EDT
日本経済の終焉 ...

 
東証 終値は811円安の7649円
円急伸、対ドルで92.80円
 
Crude Oil May Fall Next Week as Fuel Consumption Declines, Survey Shows
Crude Oil May Fall as Fuel Consumption Declines, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week on concern that fuel consumption will weaken as the economic decline deepens.

Eleven of 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 39 percent, said prices will decrease through Oct. 24. Ten respondents, or 36 percent, said oil will rise and seven forecast little change. Last week 43 percent expected futures to decline.

U.S. fuel demand averaged about 18.6 million barrels a day during the past four weeks, the lowest since June 1999, according to a weekly supply report from the Energy Department, released yesterday. The U.S. consumes 24 percent of the world's oil.

``Fear about the economy, credit markets and demand is driving the oil market,'' said Christopher Edmonds, the managing principal of FIG Partners Energy Research & Capital Group in Atlanta. ``Oil will remain under pressure until we get more certainty about the economy.''

Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities last month dropped 2.8 percent, the most since 1974, Federal Reserve figures showed yesterday. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to minus 37.5 this month, the lowest since October 1990, the bank said yesterday.

Crude oil for November delivery fell $7.85, or 10 percent, to $69.85 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $68.57 a barrel yesterday, the lowest intraday price since June 27, 2007. Prices have dropped 53 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.



Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
10****** 7****** 11
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 17, 2008 00:03 EDT

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