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アラジン・ランプ

Author:アラジン・ランプ
99年8月から先物を始めて今年で ・・・年目です。マイナス8桁に沈んだ事もありましたが、通算でプラス8桁をキープしております。
 
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futuresfarm
 
このブログは単なる備忘録です。私の独断と偏見で編集しました。内容もあまり正確ではないと思います。疑いの目で批判的に見ていただくことを希望します。
 
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アラジン・ランプの石油先物トレード大作戦
☆☆☆この世界はハイリスクであることを忘れてはなりません。そして自己責任の原則です。あまり欲は出さず、儲かった時も謙虚にやれば、長く相場を張る事が出来ます。
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外国人の外国人による外国人のための裁定取引所
やすな
 
なぜ東京石油がNY製品の後追いを?
まさか冬場に向けガソリン高、灯油安になるとでも?
 
今迄の日本の常識では相場ができなくなった・・・
またそこが彼等の狙い所かもね。
 
そう言えば昔話で、庄屋のご馳走に百姓たちが呼ばれたが、
作法がわすらず、庄屋がする通りにすればよいと言う事になった。
いざ宴席が始まって、庄屋がうっかり皿の芋を転がしてしまった。
それを見た百姓たちは皆いっせいに皿の芋を転がしたとさ・・・
カンラ、カンラ ・・・
 
あゆき
 
スポンサーサイト
NYヒーティング・オイルに注目
はずむやすな
 
一足先にレンジのサポートを抜けたようだね。
庄屋の芋転がしの話ね~☆ 庄屋はヒーティング・オイルなのか・・・
いや、庄屋はNYMEXで、芋がヒーティング・オイルだね!
しばらく様子見としよう・・・
 
110ドルあたりにもサポートラインがあるのかな。
いずれにしても暫らくはレンジ相場でしょうね。
 
Crude Oil May Fall Next Week.....
ゆみせんせい それは恋 ・・・
 
Crude Oil May Fall Next Week Amid Waning Demand, Survey Shows

By Margot Habiby

Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week amid weakening demand caused by a global economic slowdown.

Thirteen of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 37 percent, said prices will drop through Aug. 15. Twelve of the respondents, or 34 percent, said oil will rise and 10 forecast little change. Last week 45 percent expected a decline.

``Growing evidence of weak demand should discourage buying,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.

U.S. fuel demand averaged 20.1 million barrels a day during the four weeks ended Aug. 1, down 2.6 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said Aug. 6.

U.S. gasoline demand fell for a 15th consecutive week as high prices caused motorists to drive less, a MasterCard Inc. report Aug. 5 showed. Demand last week dropped 3.4 percent from a year earlier, MasterCard, the second-biggest credit-card company, said in a weekly report.

U.S. gasoline supplies fell 4.34 million barrels, or 2 percent, to 209.2 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 1, the biggest drop since April, according to Energy Department data released Aug. 6. Those figures and a 20 percent drop in crude prices since a record $147.27 a barrel set July 11 have other analysts forecasting prices will rise.

``The gasoline number was a little surprising, and we maybe moved down a little too fast too soon to the downside,'' said Ryan McCabe, director of trading at Haly Oil & Acquisition in Malvern, Pennsylvania.

Higher Production

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production 0.7 percent in July, as Saudi Arabian output reached a three-year high and Nigerian production rose to the highest since March, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Crude oil for September delivery fell $5.08, or 4.1 percent, to $120.02 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983. Oil touched $117.11 a barrel on Aug. 6, down more than 20 percent from the record, a threshold often seen as the start of a bear market.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 48 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.



Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
12******10******13
To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 8, 2008 01:22 EDT
NYヒーティング・オイル反発
やすな
 
みなさ~ん♪
ゆみせんせい
 
130ドル(半値戻し)は軽いわよ~☆
 
Crude Oil Futures May Rise as Dollar Weakens, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week because of a weakening dollar, tension between the U.S. and Russia and falling gasoline stockpiles.

Sixteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said prices will increase through Aug. 29. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will be little changed and six said there would be a drop in prices. Last week 63 percent expected prices to increase.

Energy and metals futures climbed yesterday as the U.S. currency fell the most against the euro in 11 weeks. A falling dollar prompts investors to by hard assets as an inflation hedge. Russia reacted angrily after Poland agreed to host a U.S. anti- missile base two weeks after Russia invaded Georgia.

``The dollar is correcting, and there are tensions in various parts of the world,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``We fell more than $30 from last month's record so it's normal for prices to bounce back.''

U.S. gasoline supplies declined 6.2 million barrels to 196.6 million barrels last week, a U.S. Energy Department report on Aug. 20 showed. Inventories have dropped 9.4 percent in the past four weeks as refineries cut operating rates.

Crude oil for October delivery fell $7.24, or 6.4 percent, to $121.18 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have dropped 18 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.



Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
16****** 7***** 6
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 22, 2008 00:02 EDT
・・・・・
はずむやすな
 
WTI暴落。「初戻り売るべし」だった訳だ ・・・
 
でもこの格言は相場の底入れが前提じゃないの!
システムは押し目買いよ!チャンス!チャンス!
 
はずむやすな
 
そして私たちのお城をつくりましょう!!
 
戻りは重い
あゆき
 
ダブルボトムもありかもね・・・
 
ハリケーン
やすな
 
NYガソリン期近が急騰するのはわかるけど、
なぜ東京ガソリンが連れ高するのよ ・・・
 
アドルフに告ぐ。それは ・・・
 
あゆき
 
石油先物市場8月の出来高は前年比61.3%減の64.9万枚
 
Oil Falls on Increase in U.S. Supplies of Natural Gas, a Competing Fuel
Oil Falls After IEA Says It Will Release Stockpiles, If Needed

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said it would tap strategic stockpiles, if needed, because of Tropical Storm Gustav.

The IEA coordinated the release of crude oil and fuel supplies after hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005. Gustav packed maximum sustained winds of almost 70 miles (113 kilometers) per hour at about 11 a.m. Miami time and may regain hurricane strength of at least 74 mph today, the National Hurricane Center said.

``The IEA is making the right soothing noises to calm the market,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``Anyone who follows the industry would expect them to release supplies if there was a great deal of damage, but this is an emotional market and words can do a lot.''

Crude oil for October delivery fell $2.75, or 2.3 percent, to $115.40 a barrel at 12:28 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 61 percent from a year ago. Oil has dropped 22 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11.

Prices also fell because U.S. stockpiles of natural gas, a competing fuel, increased more than analysts forecast. Supplies rose 102 billion cubic feet to 2.757 trillion cubic feet last week, the U.S. Energy Department said today. A gain of 84 billion was expected, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

``This is a really bearish natural gas number,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``All attention was focused on the storm before the report.''

Natural gas for October delivery tumbled 74.4 cents, or 8.6 percent, to $7.864 per million British thermal units in New York.

The Gulf of Mexico is home to 26 percent of U.S. oil output and 14 percent of the country's gas production.

``If the storm remains on this track, prices will start to rise again,'' said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas in New York.

Brent crude oil for October settlement fell $2.24, or 1.9 percent, to $113.98 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 28, 2008 12:41 EDT
原油高でも世界経済は底堅い
みなさ~ん♪ アラジンランプ・システムは押し目買いで~す☆
ダブルボトムかもしれないので見極めをしっかりとね。
もしサポートを下抜ければ、押し目買いのサインは消えます。
 
ゆみせんせい
 
4―6月の米GDP改定値は3.3%成長 1.4ポイント上方修正 (NIKKEI NET)
Copyright 2008 Nikkei Inc. / Nikkei Digital Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
 
 【ワシントン=藤井一明】米商務省が28日発表した4―6月の実質国内総生産(GDP)の改定値は季節調整済みの年率換算で前期に比べ3.3%増えた。成長率は7月末に公表した速報値(1.9%)を1.4ポイント上方修正した。市場予測の平均(2.7%)も上回った。速報よりも輸出の伸びが高まった半面、輸入の落ち込みが大きくなり、輸出から輸入を差し引いた外需の押し上げが顕著になった。

 米国の成長率は昨年10―12月(マイナス0.2%)、今年1―3月(プラス0.9%)の低迷が続いた後、3%超の水準に復帰した。4―6月は減税を柱とする景気対策も個人消費や設備投資を下支えした。ただ、内需は盛り上がりに欠け、減税の効果が薄れる7月以降は外需頼みの構図がさらに強まりそうだ。

 4―6月のGDPの改定値で全体の約7割を占める個人消費は1.7%増え、速報値よりも伸び率を0.2ポイント上方修正した。設備投資は速報値とほぼ同じ2.2%増だった。輸出は13.2%の大幅増。輸入は逆に7.6%減った。速報値に比べ輸出は伸び率を4.0ポイント高め、輸入は下落幅を1.0ポイント拡大した。 (21:49)
 
 
Crude Oil May Advance Next Week as Gustav Moves Toward U.S., Survey Shows
Crude Oil May Rise as Gustav Moves Toward U.S., Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week on forecasts that Tropical Storm Gustav will strike production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Eleven of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 38 percent, said prices will increase through Sept. 5. Nine of the respondents, or 31 percent, said oil will decline and nine said prices will be little changed. Last week 55 percent expected futures to increase.

Gustav, downgraded to a tropical storm on Aug. 27 may regain hurricane strength of at least 74 mph at any time, the National Hurricane Center said. Tropical Storm Hanna formed northeast of the Bahamas yesterday, the center said.

``We have Gustav headed toward the U.S. and right behind us there is Hanna,'' said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. ``At some point one of these is bound to hit.''

The Gulf of Mexico is home to 26 percent of U.S. oil output and 14 percent of the country's gas production. In 2005 Hurricane Katrina closed 95 percent of offshore output in the region.

Crude oil for November delivery rose $1, or 0.9 percent, to $115.59 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have dropped 22 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.



Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
11****** 9******* 9
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 29, 2008 01:29 EDT


Oil May Drop to $90 Before Rebounding Late in Year, Nordea Says

By Jakob Lindstroem

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices may fall to $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter before rallying to reach $105 next year, Nordea Bank AB executives said at a presentation in Stockholm.

``Higher fuel prices and the weaker U.S. economy will hamper demand for oil and drive prices lower before remaining high in the coming two years,'' said Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Oslo-based global head of commodities research at Nordea.

``Long-term, oil is fundamentally determined by supply and demand, and prices will remain high as we expect Saudi Arabia will not be able to increase production as much as they have indicated,'' Saltvedt said today at the bank's headquarters.

Crude headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months as producers evacuated rigs before the arrival of Gustav, forecast to be the largest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Katrina. Oil traded at $117.22 a barrel at 8:29 a.m. in New York. Crude futures reached a record $147.27 in July.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jakob Lindstroem in Stockholm at jlindstroem@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 29, 2008 08:37 EDT

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