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アラジン・ランプ

Author:アラジン・ランプ
99年8月から先物を始めて今年で ・・・年目です。マイナス8桁に沈んだ事もありましたが、通算でプラス8桁をキープしております。
 
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futuresfarm
 
このブログは単なる備忘録です。私の独断と偏見で編集しました。内容もあまり正確ではないと思います。疑いの目で批判的に見ていただくことを希望します。
 
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アラジン・ランプの石油先物トレード大作戦
☆☆☆この世界はハイリスクであることを忘れてはなりません。そして自己責任の原則です。あまり欲は出さず、儲かった時も謙虚にやれば、長く相場を張る事が出来ます。
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少し前までは ・・・
はずむ
 
少し前まで、投機マネーがある程度幅をきかせていた頃は、
脳天5寸釘(?)が出現すると大抵流れが変わるため、買い玉は手仕舞ったもの ・・・
しかし今はこれが何回出現しても、買い方は逃げようともせず、押し目すら形成しない。
長期運用マネーが主体となった現在、全て過去の経験則は通用しなくなった。
何本脳天5寸釘打ち込まれても、いくら殺そうとしても、ゾンピの如く死なない相場 ・・・
それどころか、反対にそれは相場上昇のエネルギーとなり、相場は暴騰する。
そして永遠に上昇を続ける ・・・世界経済が破綻するまで。
 
あゆき 観ているだけね。
 = THE END =
 
外国人の外国人による外国人のための取引所 (TOCOM)
 
Oil May Extend Record Increases on Mideast Unrest, Survey Shows

By Margot Habiby

July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may extend record gains next week because of concern a Mideast conflict may curtail supplies and the dollar will weaken, increasing the appeal of commodities as a hedge.

ABC News reported this week that Israel is increasingly likely to attack Iranian nuclear facilities this year. Iran insists its nuclear enrichment work is for peaceful purposes. The dollar has fallen 7 percent this year against the euro.

Fourteen of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 54 percent, said prices will increase through July 11. Five of the respondents, or 19 percent, said oil will fall and seven forecast little change. Last week, 46 percent said futures would drop.

``Rumors of an Israeli attack on Iran in coming months and a weak dollar are keeping the crude-oil bull alive,'' said Mike Armbruster, co-founder of Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Laguna Hills, California.

The euro fell the most against the dollar in more than two months yesterday after European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled that he may not increase interest rates again after raising the benchmark lending rate to 4.25 percent.

Crude oil for August delivery rose $5.08, or 3.6 percent, to $145.29 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $145.85 a barrel yesterday, the highest since trading began in 1983.

U.S. markets are closed today for the Independence Day holiday.

It was the first bullish forecast in six weeks and only the second time responses haven't been bearish since Jan. 4. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.


Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
14****** 7******* 5
To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 4, 2008 00:34 EDT
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・・・・・
ゆみせんせい それは ・・・
 
Oil May Fall on U.S. Supply Increase, Demand Drop, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week as U.S. supplies increase and slowing economic growth curbs fuel use in the world's biggest energy-consuming country.

Ten of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 45 percent, said prices will fall through July 25. Seven of the respondents, or 32 percent, said oil will rise and five forecast little change. Last week 63 percent said futures would increase.

U.S. inventories of crude oil, gasoline, diesel and heating oil rose last week, an Energy Department report on June 16 showed. Demand for gasoline fell 5.2 percent last week from a year earlier, the 12th consecutive weekly decline, a MasterCard Inc. report on July 15 showed.

``The fundamentals continue to look weaker and weaker, especially for the U.S. gasoline market,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. ``At some point this will tip the balance in the wider complex, triggering a major bout of long liquidation.''

Longs are bets that prices will rise.

Crude oil for August delivery fell $14.91, or 10 percent, to $130.17 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

やすな 120ドルで支持されるわよ・・・
 
Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
7****** 5****** 10
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 18, 2008 01:24 EDT
120-150ドルのレンジ相場へ
はずむやすな
 
3カ月は続くと思うな・・・

Oil Rises $3 on Israeli Comments About Iranian Nuclear Program

By Margot Habiby

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rallied more than $3 a barrel after Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said that Iran is on a path toward a ``major breakthrough'' in its nuclear weapons program which he called ``unacceptable.''

Israel has to ``make sure we are prepared for every option,'' Mofaz said, fueling speculation that the U.S. or Israel may attack Iran. Iran has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's oil is exported, if its nuclear facilities are targeted.

Mofaz ``definitely has juice,'' and his comments ``would make everybody nervous,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. Mofaz is seen as a candidate for Israeli prime minister after Ehud Olmert said he would leave office.

Crude oil for September delivery rose $3.20, or 2.6 percent, to $127.28 a barrel at 11:18 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $128.60 a barrel.

Similar speculation of an attack on Iran contributed to the oil-price rally that took futures to a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's highest authority, said this week that his country will push forward with its nuclear program, which Iranian officials say is designed for energy generation and other peaceful purposes.

Khamenei spoke before a deadline for Iran to reply to an offer from world powers of economic and diplomatic incentives in exchange for the suspension of its uranium-enrichment activities.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said July 27 that the country has 6,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, the Associated Press reported.

Iran is OPEC's second-largest oil producer. It pumped about 3.85 million barrels of oil a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
 
とまりあすた
 
Earlier Decline

Oil prices declined in earlier trading amid signs demand will extend declines after the government reported the U.S. lost jobs for a seventh straight month in July.

``Today's spike might be a bit of a knee-jerk reaction,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. ``It's a tug-of-war between the more bullish geopolitical concerns and the more bearish economic outlook.''

Oil dropped as low as $124.06 a barrel today after the Labor Department said payrolls fell by 51,000, less than forecast, and the jobless rate rose to 5.7 percent, the highest since March 2004, from 5.5 percent the month before. Fuel consumption in the past 12 months was the lowest since 2004-2005, according to the Energy Department.

Economic News

``Bad economic news is leading to demand destruction,'' said Phil Flynn senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

Futures have slipped more than $20 a barrel from the record on signs of declining demand in the U.S., which consumed about 24 percent of the world's crude in 2007. They fell 11 percent in July, the biggest one-month decline since December 2004.

The U.S. economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter. Gross domestic product increased at a 1.9 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department said in Washington yesterday, compared with the median projection of 2.3 percent in a Bloomberg News survey.

Manufacturing in China, the world's second-biggest energy consumer, contracted for the first time since a survey of purchasing managers began in 2005.

China's Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 48.4 in July from 52 in June, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e-mailed statement.

Brent crude oil for September settlement rose $2.83, or 2.3 percent, to $126.91 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Crude prices may fall next week on slowing demand. Thirteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 45 percent, said prices will drop through August 8. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will rise and nine forecast little change. Last week 46 percent expected a decline.

To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 1, 2008 11:23 EDT

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