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| ＮＹヒーティング・オイル反発 |
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| Crude Oil May Fall Next Week．．．．． |
 それは恋 ・・・
Crude Oil May Fall Next Week Amid Waning Demand, Survey Shows
By Margot Habiby
Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week amid weakening demand caused by a global economic slowdown.
Thirteen of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 37 percent, said prices will drop through Aug. 15. Twelve of the respondents, or 34 percent, said oil will rise and 10 forecast little change. Last week 45 percent expected a decline.
``Growing evidence of weak demand should discourage buying,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.
U.S. fuel demand averaged 20.1 million barrels a day during the four weeks ended Aug. 1, down 2.6 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said Aug. 6.
U.S. gasoline demand fell for a 15th consecutive week as high prices caused motorists to drive less, a MasterCard Inc. report Aug. 5 showed. Demand last week dropped 3.4 percent from a year earlier, MasterCard, the second-biggest credit-card company, said in a weekly report.
U.S. gasoline supplies fell 4.34 million barrels, or 2 percent, to 209.2 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 1, the biggest drop since April, according to Energy Department data released Aug. 6. Those figures and a 20 percent drop in crude prices since a record $147.27 a barrel set July 11 have other analysts forecasting prices will rise.
``The gasoline number was a little surprising, and we maybe moved down a little too fast too soon to the downside,'' said Ryan McCabe, director of trading at Haly Oil & Acquisition in Malvern, Pennsylvania.
Higher Production
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production 0.7 percent in July, as Saudi Arabian output reached a three-year high and Nigerian production rose to the highest since March, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Crude oil for September delivery fell $5.08, or 4.1 percent, to $120.02 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983. Oil touched $117.11 a barrel on Aug. 6, down more than 20 percent from the record, a threshold often seen as the start of a bear market.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 48 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
12******10******13
To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: August 8, 2008 01:22 EDT
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| ＮＹヒーティング・オイルに注目 |
一足先にレンジのサポートを抜けたようだね。
庄屋の芋転がしの話ね〜☆ 庄屋はヒーティング・オイルなのか・・・
いや、庄屋はNYMEXで、芋がヒーティング・オイルだね！
しばらく様子見としよう・・・
１１０ドルあたりにもサポートラインがあるのかな。
いずれにしても暫らくはレンジ相場でしょうね。
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| 外国人の外国人による外国人のための裁定取引所 |
なぜ東京石油がＮＹ製品の後追いを？
まさか冬場に向けガソリン高、灯油安になるとでも？
今迄の日本の常識では相場ができなくなった・・・
またそこが彼等の狙い所かもね。
そう言えば昔話で、庄屋のご馳走に百姓たちが呼ばれたが、
作法がわすらず、庄屋がする通りにすればよいと言う事になった。
いざ宴席が始まって、庄屋がうっかり皿の芋を転がしてしまった。
それを見た百姓たちは皆いっせいに皿の芋を転がしたとさ・・・
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| １２０−１５０ドルのレンジ相場へ |
３カ月は続くと思うな・・・
Oil Rises $3 on Israeli Comments About Iranian Nuclear Program
By Margot Habiby
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rallied more than $3 a barrel after Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said that Iran is on a path toward a ``major breakthrough'' in its nuclear weapons program which he called ``unacceptable.''
Israel has to ``make sure we are prepared for every option,'' Mofaz said, fueling speculation that the U.S. or Israel may attack Iran. Iran has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's oil is exported, if its nuclear facilities are targeted.
Mofaz ``definitely has juice,'' and his comments ``would make everybody nervous,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. Mofaz is seen as a candidate for Israeli prime minister after Ehud Olmert said he would leave office.
Crude oil for September delivery rose $3.20, or 2.6 percent, to $127.28 a barrel at 11:18 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $128.60 a barrel.
Similar speculation of an attack on Iran contributed to the oil-price rally that took futures to a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's highest authority, said this week that his country will push forward with its nuclear program, which Iranian officials say is designed for energy generation and other peaceful purposes.
Khamenei spoke before a deadline for Iran to reply to an offer from world powers of economic and diplomatic incentives in exchange for the suspension of its uranium-enrichment activities.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said July 27 that the country has 6,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, the Associated Press reported.
Iran is OPEC's second-largest oil producer. It pumped about 3.85 million barrels of oil a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Earlier Decline
Oil prices declined in earlier trading amid signs demand will extend declines after the government reported the U.S. lost jobs for a seventh straight month in July.
``Today's spike might be a bit of a knee-jerk reaction,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. ``It's a tug-of-war between the more bullish geopolitical concerns and the more bearish economic outlook.''
Oil dropped as low as $124.06 a barrel today after the Labor Department said payrolls fell by 51,000, less than forecast, and the jobless rate rose to 5.7 percent, the highest since March 2004, from 5.5 percent the month before. Fuel consumption in the past 12 months was the lowest since 2004-2005, according to the Energy Department.
Economic News
``Bad economic news is leading to demand destruction,'' said Phil Flynn senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
Futures have slipped more than $20 a barrel from the record on signs of declining demand in the U.S., which consumed about 24 percent of the world's crude in 2007. They fell 11 percent in July, the biggest one-month decline since December 2004.
The U.S. economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter. Gross domestic product increased at a 1.9 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department said in Washington yesterday, compared with the median projection of 2.3 percent in a Bloomberg News survey.
Manufacturing in China, the world's second-biggest energy consumer, contracted for the first time since a survey of purchasing managers began in 2005.
China's Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 48.4 in July from 52 in June, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e-mailed statement.
Brent crude oil for September settlement rose $2.83, or 2.3 percent, to $126.91 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Crude prices may fall next week on slowing demand. Thirteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 45 percent, said prices will drop through August 8. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will rise and nine forecast little change. Last week 46 percent expected a decline.
To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: August 1, 2008 11:23 EDT
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